2013 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Targets

Who is ready to talk about some Fantasy Football? Now that August is almost here, I have started to dissect all the fantasy football articles, rankings and projections to put together some spreadsheets for my upcoming drafts. With the NFL becoming more of an aerial attack game over the recent years and bevy of wide receivers who have exploded on the scene, there will plenty of mid-to-late round selections to take advantage of.

After reading Matthew Berry’s, Draft Day Manifesto, he made some good points on the lack of “top tier” WRs in this year’s draft. That is not to say the WR class is weak, it is actually very deep, but the talent is spread around. The top of the food chain is established with the likes of Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall and maybe Julio Jones. After these guys, the projections and opinions of the rest differ across the board.

From returning injured players, new head coaches, new offensive schemes and players switching teams, drafting WRs this year might get tricky. Another article by Matthew Berry, 100 facts you need to know before draft, has a few bits of information on the position. Here is what I took from the piece as useful for my upcoming drafts:

“In Dwayne Bowe’s career (2007-12), Chiefs quarterbacks have completed 57.8 percent of passes, 28th in the league in that span. Over the past nine seasons, Andy Reid offenses have been top-10 in the NFL in passing yards eight times.”

“Last season, the only player in the league to get at least three targets in the end zone and to catch them all was Randall Cobb. He was 6-for-6.”

“Last season, Antonio Brown dropped just 2.9 percent of his targets. Only five wide receivers had as many targets as Brown and a lower drop percentage: Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, Miles Austin and Anquan Boldin. — Brown averaged just more than eight targets per game. Brown also made the All-Reliable team over at DavidGonos.com.”

Or did you know this:

“From Weeks 10-17, the player who caught the lowest percentage of his targets was … Larry Fitzgerald, at just 33.3 percent.”

There are a lot of good resources out there to determine the value of each WR. And, all of this brings me to one stat that plays an important roll in my decision making, Targets. Yes, selecting Megatron, AJ Green or Dez Bryant will be easier decisions this year. When to select them in comparison to RBs might not be, but in comparison across the WR position they will be. But, with a long draft ahead of you and all those empty roster spots staring at you, targets and points per target are nice stats to incorporate in your research.

If you are looking for even more on the subject, check out the site 4for4 who has a nice breakdown of fantasy points per target for the 116 WRs that saw at least 30 targets and then goes a step further in removing the impact of QB play.

Below is my own research on the top WRs last year according to points per target as well as the projections for the 2013 season. The projection include targets, fantasy points, and fantasy points per target for 77 WRs ranked among ESPNs top projections. Utilizing this I can gauge between the middle tier WRs and find some WRs deeper in the draft. Productive WRs last season, according to fantasy points per targets, and who are projected for an increase in targets this season, can be a great place to start when identifying the breakout guy. Let’s discuss in the comments section who everyone feels would be a solid selection according to these numbers.

2013 (All Ranked in Top 80 in ESPN and Projected for 40+ Targets)

PLAYER, TEAM	2013 Target Projection	2013 FPTS Projection	Per Target
Tavon Austin, StL	76	119	1.566
Sidney Rice, Sea	82	118	1.439
Danario Alexander, SD	89	128	1.438
Demaryius Thomas, Den	126	180	1.429
Julio Jones, Atl	131	186	1.420
Dez Bryant, Dal	145	202	1.393
Golden Tate, Sea	50	69	1.380
Calvin Johnson, Det	172	236	1.372
Jordy Nelson, GB	113	154	1.363
Eric Decker, Den	102	134	1.314
Vincent Jackson, TB	138	175	1.268
Cordarrelle Patterson, Min	46	58	1.261
Marques Colston, NO	119	150	1.261
Randall Cobb, GB	136	171	1.257
A.J. Green, Cin	160	201	1.256
Pierre Garcon, Wsh	98	123	1.255
T.Y. Hilton, Ind	101	126	1.248
Roddy White, Atl	142	177	1.246
Nate Washington, Ten	43	53	1.233
Percy Harvin, Sea  INJ	144	177	1.229
Josh Gordon, Cle   SSPD	96	118	1.229
DeAndre Hopkins, Hou	70	86	1.229
Mike Wallace, Mia	126	154	1.222
A.J. Jenkins, SF	56	68	1.214
Lance Moore, NO	97	117	1.206
Kenny Britt, Ten	78	93	1.192
Andre Johnson, Hou	149	177	1.188
Joe Morgan, NO	48	57	1.188
DeSean Jackson, Phi	97	115	1.186
Malcom Floyd, SD	72	85	1.181
Cecil Shorts, Jac	112	131	1.170
Victor Cruz, NYG	130	152	1.169
James Jones, GB	116	134	1.155
Torrey Smith, Bal	120	138	1.150
Wes Welker, Den	135	154	1.141
Miles Austin, Dal	104	118	1.135
Brandon Lloyd, FA	98	111	1.133
Santana Moss, Wsh	62	70	1.129
Larry Fitzgerald, Ari	150	167	1.113
Greg Jennings, Min	110	122	1.109
Hakeem Nicks, NYG	113	124	1.097
Brandon Marshall, Chi	179	196	1.095
Chris Givens, StL	107	117	1.093
Keenan Allen, SD	46	50	1.087
Danny Amendola, NE	106	115	1.085
Brian Hartline, Mia	75	81	1.080
Anquan Boldin, SF	117	125	1.068
Antonio Brown, Pit	126	134	1.063
Rueben Randle, NYG	78	82	1.051
Emmanuel Sanders, Pit	105	110	1.048
Steve Smith, Car	132	137	1.038
Mike Williams, TB	120	123	1.025
Dwayne Bowe, KC	129	132	1.023
Brandon LaFell, Car	75	76	1.013
Mohamed Sanu, Cin	64	64	1.000
Denarius Moore, Oak	116	115	0.991
Kendall ight, Ten	115	112	0.974
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Ind	73	70	0.959
Robert Woods, Buf	72	69	0.958
Alshon Jeffery, Chi	97	92	0.948
Ryan Broyles, Det   Q	97	90	0.928
Andrew Hawkins, Cin	75	69	0.920
Greg Little, Cle	82	75	0.915
Steve Johnson, Buf	140	128	0.914
Andre Roberts, Ari	97	87	0.897
Jacoby Jones, Bal	87	77	0.885
Aaron Dobson, NE	76	67	0.882
Reggie Wayne, Ind	170	149	0.876
Michael Floyd, Ari	96	84	0.875
Justin Hunter, Ten	67	58	0.866
Rod Streater, Oak	78	65	0.833
Jeremy Kerley, NYJ	104	83	0.798
Justin Blackmon, Jac   SSPD	98	78	0.796
Brian Quick, StL	86	67	0.779
Nate Burleson, Det   P	88	68	0.773
Davone Bess, Cle	84	62	0.738

2012 Results

PLAYER, TEAM	2012 Targets	2012 FPTS	FPTS Per Target
Danario Alexander, SD	62	104	1.677
Santana Moss, Wsh	61	99	1.623
James Jones, GB	98	158	1.612
Golden Tate, Sea	68	107	1.574
Jordy Nelson, GB	73	114	1.562
T.Y. Hilton, Ind	91	133	1.462
Dez Bryant, Dal	138	201	1.457
Randall Cobb, GB	104	150	1.442
Eric Decker, Den	123	176	1.431
Sidney Rice, Sea	80	111	1.388
Rueben Randle, NYG	32	44	1.375
Demaryius Thomas, Den	141	191	1.355
Julio Jones, Atl	129	173	1.341
Lance Moore, NO	104	137	1.317
Pierre Garcon, Wsh	67	88	1.313
Marques Colston, NO	132	166	1.258
Malcom Floyd, SD	84	105	1.250
Cecil Shorts, Jac	106	132	1.245
Vincent Jackson, TB	147	181	1.231
Ryan Broyles, Det	33	40	1.212
A.J. Green, Cin	164	194	1.183
Roddy White, Atl	143	169	1.182
Percy Harvin, Sea	85	99	1.165
Brandon LaFell, Car	76	88	1.158
Torrey Smith, Bal	110	127	1.155
Mike Williams, TB	127	146	1.150
Victor Cruz, NYG	143	162	1.133
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Ind	80	89	1.113
Jarius ight, Min	36	40	1.111
Jacoby Jones, Bal	54	59	1.093
Brandon Marshall, Chi	193	210	1.088
Andre Johnson, Hou	164	176	1.073
Chris Givens, StL	80	85	1.063
Alshon Jeffery, Chi	48	51	1.063
Calvin Johnson, Det	204	214	1.049
Josh Gordon, Cle	96	100	1.042
Nate Washington, Ten	89	92	1.034
Mike Wallace, Mia	119	123	1.034
Miles Austin, Dal	118	121	1.025
Anquan Boldin, SF	112	111	0.991
Steve Smith, Car	138	135	0.978
Denarius Moore, Oak	115	110	0.957
Rod Streater, Oak	74	70	0.946
Wes Welker, Den	174	163	0.937
Jeremy Kerley, NYJ	96	89	0.927
Greg Jennings, Min	62	57	0.919
Antonio Brown, Pit	106	96	0.906
DeSean Jackson, Phi	85	76	0.894
Greg Little, Cle	91	81	0.890
Andrew Hawkins, Cin	80	71	0.888
Steve Johnson, Buf	148	131	0.885
Andre Roberts, Ari	113	100	0.885
Brandon Lloyd, FA	130	114	0.877
Kenny Britt, Ten	90	78	0.867
Nate Burleson, Det	43	37	0.860
Justin Blackmon, Jac	132	112	0.848
Emmanuel Sanders, Pit	73	60	0.822
Brian Quick, StL	28	23	0.821
Brian Hartline, Mia	128	105	0.820
Hakeem Nicks, NYG	100	82	0.820
Reggie Wayne, Ind	194	158	0.814
Dwayne Bowe, KC	114	91	0.798
Danny Amendola, NE	101	78	0.772
Davone Bess, Cle	104	78	0.750
Kendall ight, Ten	104	77	0.740
Michael Floyd, Ari	86	59	0.686
Larry Fitzgerald, Ari	153	99	0.647

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