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2013 Fantasy Football Wide Receivers with Value

Is there a more frustrating position in fantasy football than wide receiver? You spend all week debating pass defenses, shut down corners and targets to only be let down when your guy barely sniffs the ball. Even worse, you go against a guy who only has two catches but scores the cheap touchdown.

As for draft strategy, do you use a top pick for one of the top tier, elite WRs or do you wait and take chances later in the draft? The popular sentiment this season is to load up on running backs early and try to find the best value in round three or later for your WRs. But what happens when the guy you were looking at gets drafted before you? There is a good chance others will be willing to spend a high pick on that top tier WR. No need to panic, here are a few guys that are going as the 20th WR drafted or higher that will have fantasy impact this season.

Torrey Smith, Ravens (Overall – 52; WR – 20)

Torrey Smith is an interesting player heading into this season. He has shown flashes and athleticism to be a top target in the NFL but disappears at times during a game. Last season wasn’t a horrible year finishing with 49 catches, 855 yards and 8 touchdowns but you get the sense there could be more. Will this be the season? With the departure of Boldin and injury to Pitta, the targets will be there. As the clear cut number one, the defense will focus on him as well.

He is a third year WR and according to Tristan H. Cockcroft over at ESPN, there is truth to the myth that third year WRs are poised for breakout seasons. When opportunity meets talent you get a great season and Smith is in line for one in 2013.

Steve Johnson, Bills (Overall – 78; WR – 30)

One thing Steve Johnson has been recently is consistent. He was 8th in the league in targets last year and has averaged 1,043 yards over the past three seasons. Yes his touchdown total has declined during that time frame but he also has had a weak QB and uncreative coach his whole time in Buffalo. Now with a new head coach preaching a high pace offense, he will have more opportunities within the system. Buffalo also added speedsters on his outside, allowing him to work in the slot this year, which should boost his reception total, and lead to an increase in both yards and touchdowns.

Lance Moore, Saints (Overall – 97; WR – 37)

As with others on this list I wanted to focus on teams that are going to be pass or offensive play heavy. WRs need targets to succeed and even though Lance Moore will be the third option for the Saints, Drew Brees is going to air it out and do it frequently. Brees was second in passing attempts, first in yards and touchdowns. Moore was targeted 7 times a game last year and at worst should be a WR3 for you going in the 9th round or later.

Josh Gordon, Browns (Overall – 99; WR – 38)

Looking past Josh Gordon’s two game suspension to start the year, he is still capable of big numbers. As a rookie last year, Gordon caught 50 passes for 805 yards and five touchdowns. Let’s not forget he is still the number one guy for a much improved Browns team now led on offense by Norv Turner.

Gordon is definitely one of the biggest risk/reward guys at the position. But, if he comes back from his suspension focused on football, he also has one of the highest ceilings for a WR being drafted 38th at his position.

I am drafting Gordon and hiding him on my bench for the first couple weeks and then watching the show the rest of the way. Getting a guy possibly outside the top 100 who could realistically become a WR2 is a risk I am willing to take.

Late Round Flyer Guys

Vincent Brown, Chargers (Overall – 121; WR – 46)

Vincent Brown was everyone’s darling last year and he couldn’t stay healthy to show us what he could do. This season he is looking like he healthiest WR San Diego has starting the season. The bottom line is San Diego needs someone to take control of the number one spot. Even though he hasn’t completed two full seasons, this is Brown’s third year and history has shown he could breakout. If he lives up to the potential and becomes the go to WR for Phillip Rivers, you are getting a number one guy on a team at an extremely cheap price. Brown is going 121 overall and is the 46th WR selected. He is definitely worth a late pick on potential alone.

Ryan Broyles, Lions (Overall – 143; WR – 51)

I will admit, last season I fell hard for all the Titus Young talk and his role on the Lions. Looking at the numbers last year it was hard to argue taking a shot on Young as Drew Stafford threw the ball a record breaking 727 times! Well this season I am back for more punishment and jumping back in with the Lions and Ryan Broyles.

We didn’t get to see much of Broyles last season (suffered another torn ACL) but if he can stay healthy there will be plenty of passes coming his way. With back-to-back blown ACL injuries, fantasy players are still not sold on him. But, with an overall ADP of 143 and 50+ positional ADP, he can be had at an extremely cheap price. The Lions need someone outside of Calvin Johnson to shine and Broyles will get every opportunity, of course if he stays healthy.

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2013 Fantasy Football Running Backs with Value

Over the weekend I wrote a piece for a new site called GetRealFootball.com. Until the end of preseason and throughout the regular season I will be helping them out in building awareness of their site. Here was my first submission, looking at some running backs with draft and season value.

2013 Fantasy Football Running Backs with Value

It’s almost here. Stressing out over which running back has the best matchup, who is going to be your flex option, or which coach is playing with the injury report. The thrill and agony of fantasy football will soon consume all of us fans in less than three weeks.

With the rise of so many relevant fantasy Quarterbacks and the Wide Receiver position a crap shoot after the top handful, the Running Back position has soared to the top of importance come draft day.

Building a stable of RBs this year will not only help you with injuries and the long fantasy season, but it will put you in the driver seat when other teams are looking for trades.

Here are some running backs that are currently not the first ones mentioned on draft day, but should be going higher.

Stevan Ridley, Patriots – According to FantasyPros.com, he is being drafted on average 23rd overall and as the 14th RB. Ridley busted onto the scene last year so it is hard to call him a “sleeper” but he should be talked about more as a top 10 back than he is. With all the attention on Brady and who he will throw the ball to, we have lost focus on the fact the Patriots love to run the ball. Last season, New England was second in the league in rush attempts, seventh in rushing yards and first in rushing touchdowns.

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Fantasy Football 2013: Five Breakout Players To Consider

garykrysztof:

This morning I want to shine some light on another blogger I follow in the sports community. Check out his latest piece breaking down the five breakout players to consider for the 2013 Fantasy Football season. Make sure to check out FantasyFurnace.com throughout the football season for great information and reads. He is a regular over at ScoreboardWatching so show him some support!

Originally posted on FANTASY FURNACE:

There are sleepers to consider, rookies to watch, and potential busts, but then there are breakout players who redefine themselves after a poor season or a lost one. The five players below are just a few of those who are ready to go to that ‘next step’ towards making a major impact in the 2013-2014 season.

1. Steven Jackson-RB-Falcons- Here’s a bold prediction right off the bat; we think that Jackson could have his best year in the NFL statistically and surely will meet or exceed his 2009 numbers. Main reason? He won’t be staring at eight in the box in Atlanta, not with their varied offensive threats. Jackson is coming off his eighth consecutive 1,000 yard season but his biggest breakout numbers will come in receptions (Jackson has averaged 45 a year) and in touchdowns where he should reach double-digits as compared to his average of 5 over the…

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2013 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Targets

Who is ready to talk about some Fantasy Football? Now that August is almost here, I have started to dissect all the fantasy football articles, rankings and projections to put together some spreadsheets for my upcoming drafts. With the NFL becoming more of an aerial attack game over the recent years and bevy of wide receivers who have exploded on the scene, there will plenty of mid-to-late round selections to take advantage of.

After reading Matthew Berry’s, Draft Day Manifesto, he made some good points on the lack of “top tier” WRs in this year’s draft. That is not to say the WR class is weak, it is actually very deep, but the talent is spread around. The top of the food chain is established with the likes of Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall and maybe Julio Jones. After these guys, the projections and opinions of the rest differ across the board.

From returning injured players, new head coaches, new offensive schemes and players switching teams, drafting WRs this year might get tricky. Another article by Matthew Berry, 100 facts you need to know before draft, has a few bits of information on the position. Here is what I took from the piece as useful for my upcoming drafts:

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How to Win a NFL Survivor Pool

Yes, you read the title correct. For this week’s blog I am going to take a break from researching stats on players or teams and focus on something a little different. Let’s discuss contest strategy! To all my readers looking for their weekly fix of stat dissection, you will still get a little taste as you learn how to win a survivor pool. Well, at least according to my point of view.

To those who may not know what a survivor pool is, the basics are easy. You pick one team to win outright every week, but you cannot pick the same team twice within the season. You win if everyone else picks a loser before you do. What is the best strategy for this? You must survive and follow this strategy:

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First Year NFL Head Coaches, Good Luck!

This blog sets out to answer one simple question. How do first year head coaches perform in their first NFL game? This season, an incredible seven teams will ride rookie coaches into week one. In comparison, last season had four, 2011 had three, and 2010 had zero. The NFL seems to be trending towards younger, first time coaches to lead their teams. And, with seven new faces to start this season it’s hard to argue the trend.

Unfortunately, as of late, first time head coaches have not had much success to open the season. Of the four first timers last season, they went 1-3 straight up and against the spread. In 2011, it wasn’t much better with the three rooks going 1-2 straight up and against the spread. First year head coaches boast an unimpressive 2-5 record to start the past two seasons. How will this year’s class do?

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First Year NFL Head Coaches, Good Luck!

This blog sets out to answer one simple question. How do first year head coaches perform in their first NFL game? This season, an incredible seven teams will ride rookie coaches into week one. In comparison, last season had four, 2011 had three, and 2010 had zero. The NFL seems to be trending towards younger, first time coaches to lead their teams. And, with seven new faces to start this season it’s hard to argue the trend.

Unfortunately, as of late, first time head coaches have not had much success to open the season. Of the four first timers last season, they went 1-3 straight up and against the spread. In 2011, it wasn’t much better with the three rooks going 1-2 straight up and against the spread. First year head coaches boast an unimpressive 2-5 record to start the past two seasons. How will this year’s class do?

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Is There Parity in the NFL?

The other day I was reading Dean Oliver’s “Basketball On Paper” and the probability of teams improving or declining their win total based on the previous season’s record. Since we are quickly approaching the start of the NFL season I wanted to see how this translated to the NFL and if “parity” really exists.

The NFL is known for putting the best sport product on the field, but how often and fast do teams usually rebound from a weak season? Breaking it down even further, how do teams that finished last in their division, perform the following season?

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NFL Teams Coming Off a Thursday Night Game

There has been some chatter recently on the NFL scheduling procedures across the league. It seems like every season media and fans alike want to dissect the Strength of Schedule of each team, even I was no different last year. As I learned in my own research, the strength of schedule argument carries little weight once the new season begins.

This year we are now hearing a whole new scheduling complaint. With more teams playing on Thursday nights, does having the extra rest create an unfair advantage the following week? Last season, we heard it was unfair for the players because they did not get enough rest going from a Sunday game to a Thursday game, or playing on a short week. You won’t here me debate that here because I wanted to focus on the opposite scenario. What were the results of a team who had “extra” rest? For the purposes of this blog it means coming off of a Thursday night game and playing a team coming off of a Sunday or Monday night game (only once did a team coming off a Thursday night game play a team coming off a bye).

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The Backseat Blogger

Since last summer, my blogging activity has definitely not kept up with the rest of my life. Things have been moving fast and with a newborn my blog has taken a back seat. I did however find time to make a few changes like adding two new reference pages:

1.       According to My Sources – Throughout every sport season there is endless amounts of information at your fingertips. “According to My Sources” is a list of everyone I trust and follow on Twitter that provides me with what I believe is useful.

2.       Point of Reference – As someone who is always looking for ways to improve my knowledge on sports, I come across numerous articles and websites. The “Point of Reference” page is dedicated to everything I find that could add value within the sports landscape.

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